Stable private and public growth
In 2025, Norway's economy is set to grow at a strong pace, supported by a combination of rising household consumption, increased government spending, and improved hydrocarbon activity. The recovery in private consumption is, in part, driven by wealth effects from higher house prices, which have strengthened household balance sheets. At the same time, government expenditures remain supportive, while the energy sector benefits from sustained hydrocarbon activity.
However, risks persist. High wage growth, fuelled by ongoing labour shortages in certain sectors, continues to pose inflationary pressures. This limits the central bank's ability to cut rates aggressively, with expectations currently pointing to a around two 25 basis point cuts over the course of the year. The tight labour market and persistent inflation concerns could prolong the period of restrictive monetary policy.
In 2025, the number of insolvencies in Norway is expected to rise, reflecting a continued normalisation after an extended period of lower levels. While this increase may appear significant, the absolute number of insolvencies remains within historical levels and should not signal an alarming wave of business failures. At the same time, higher costs will put pressure on firms, contributing to the rise in insolvencies. Wage growth remains elevated, while energy prices continue to be a challenge for cost-intensive industries. However, strong economic activity should keep overall insolvency levels at manageable levels.
Balances helped by hydrocarbon activity
In 2025, Norway’s current account balance is expected to narrow slightly, though it will remain characterized by a substantial goods surplus, primarily driven by hydrocarbon exports. While hydrocarbon production is set to remain strong, the overall trade balance may see some moderation. Meanwhile, the balance of services is likely to persist with a similar deficit or experience a slight increase. A key feature of Norway’s external position remains its consistently high balance of income and current transfers, supported by returns from its significant foreign assets, including the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund.
Norway’s public balance is expected to remain robust, with a continued strong surplus despite rising government spending. Higher revenue, particularly from the hydrocarbon sector, will offset increased expenditures, keeping public debt roughly unchanged. This reflects the country’s stable fiscal position, although, as in previous years, the mainland economy would continue to run a deficit without oil and gas production and related tax income and transfers from the fund.
A tight election is expected in the fall
The next parliamentary election, scheduled for September 2025, is set to be an important one. The current government took office at the beginning of this year after the Centre Party – an agricultural, EU-sceptic party – left the previous coalition due to disagreements over Norway’s future relationship with the EU, particularly on energy policy. As a result, the Labour Party now governs alone, with former Prime Minister and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg returning as Minister of Finance. Since the split and Stoltenberg’s return, Labour has seen a resurgence in the polls, making the outcome of the autumn election increasingly uncertain.
The external political uncertainty remains a key theme in Norway in 2025, as shifting global dynamics force the country to reassess its strategic priorities. The new American administration to the international stage has increased pressure on Norway to boost defence spending, reinforcing its NATO commitments while also prompting discussions on greater self-reliance. Simultaneously, Norway is reevaluating its relationship with the EU – not only in terms of security cooperation but also regarding its role as a key energy supplier. These evolving geopolitical considerations are shaping both defence policy and the framework for Norway’s energy ties with Europe.